Trump 2.0: Global and Indian Impacts

Syllabus
GS Paper 2 – Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

What does this article provide?
The article discusses Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States and its implications for global politics and India, highlighting changes in US policies and their potential impact on international relations.

Importance of the Article for UPSC CSE Exam
This article is crucial for UPSC CSE aspirants as it provides insights into the geopolitical implications of a significant leadership change in the US. Understanding the global and bilateral impacts of Trump’s policies on India and the world can help aspirants develop a comprehensive perspective on international relations, trade, and climate policies.

Potential Topics for Prelims
Citizenship in India and US, Birthright Citizenship, World Health Organization, Paris Climate Agreement, Gulf of Mexico, Two-Gender Policy, Executive Order, 123 Agreement

Potential Topics for Mains
US-India Relations, Impact of US Policies on Global Trade, Climate Change and International Agreements, Immigration Policies, Role of WHO in Global Health, Gender Policies and Human Rights

Source
The Hindu

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Trump 2.0: Global and Indian Impacts

Introduction

Donald Trump’s second term as the 47th President of the United States, beginning on January 20, 2025, marks the start of a new ‘Trumpian’ era. Previously serving as the 45th President from 2017 to 2021, Trump has already signed several executive orders, including declaring a national emergency at the US-Mexico border, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO), and ending birthright citizenship.

Key Executive Orders signed by Trump in His Second Term

• Ending Birthright Citizenship:
  • Birthright citizenship, ensured by the 14th Amendment, grants citizenship to anyone born on US soil.
  • The order aims to halt the issuance of citizenship documents to individuals born in the US within 30 days of enactment.
• Exiting the World Health Organization:
  • The US plans to withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO) within 12 months and will stop all financial contributions.
  • As the largest financial supporter, this marks a significant shift in US involvement.
• Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement:
  • Trump reaffirmed his commitment to exit the Paris Climate Agreement, a global treaty addressing climate change.
  • This order reiterates his campaign promise made during the election.
• Renaming the Gulf of Mexico:
  • Trump ordered the Gulf of Mexico to be renamed the ‘Gulf of America’, fulfilling a recent pledge.
• National Border Emergency Declaration:
  • This action allows for the deployment of US troops to the southern border, enforcing stricter immigration policies.
  • The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 will help eliminate foreign gangs and criminal networks.
• Declaring a National Energy Emergency:
  • To boost fossil fuel production, Trump declared a national energy emergency.
  • This includes lifting drilling restrictions in Alaska and reversing a pause on gas exports.
  • The declaration fast-tracks permits for new fossil fuel infrastructure projects.
• Establishing a Two-Gender Policy:
  • Trump signed an order to remove ‘gender ideology’ from federal documents, policies, and communications.
  • The new policy recognizes only two genders—male and female—officially.

Trump 2.0: Implications for the World

• Weakening of Multilateralism:
  • Trump’s exit from international bodies and agreements (e.g., WHO, Paris Climate Agreement) weakens global cooperation on health, trade, and climate.
  • U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement reduces momentum for global climate goals. As the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter, the U.S. plays a crucial role in global climate strategies.
  • Imposing tariffs on BRICS nations for exploring non-dollar trade systems could strain global trade frameworks and disrupt supply chains.
  • During his first term, Trump imposed $360 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to retaliatory measures and disrupting global markets.
• Climate Policy Reversals:
  • Revival of fossil fuel-centric policies and halting green energy initiatives threaten global climate goals.
  • Declaring a national energy emergency to expand fossil fuel production contrasts with global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.
  • The renewable energy sector in the U.S., employing over 3.4 million people, may face setbacks due to halted green initiatives.
• Erosion of International Legal Order:
  • Actions like rejecting the global corporate tax deal and revisiting sovereignty in multilateral treaties challenge established norms.
  • U.S. refusal to adopt the OECD’s 15% global minimum corporate tax could lead other countries to reinstate unilateral digital taxes, risking retaliatory tariffs.
  • The OECD tax deal involves 140 countries and aims to address profit-shifting by multinational corporations.
• Geopolitical Realignments:
  • U.S. normalization with Russia and overtures to China could shift power dynamics, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • While welcoming closer ties with Moscow, Trump’s history of seeking “grand bargains” with China raises concerns among U.S. allies like Japan and India.
  • Under Trump 1.0, the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), creating a void that China exploited by promoting the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
• Impact on Global Governance:
  • Trump’s obstruction of WTO Appellate Body appointments left the dispute resolution mechanism dysfunctional.
  • Between 1995 and 2018, the WTO resolved 500+ trade disputes. Its current dysfunction risks unchecked trade conflicts globally.

Trump 2.0: Implications for India

• Trade Challenges:
  • Increased pressure to open Indian markets and address trade imbalances could strain economic relations.
  • Trump’s emphasis on tariffs and protectionism, including threats of 100% tariffs on BRICS nations exploring non-dollar trade, may affect Indian exports like pharmaceuticals and IT services.
• Immigration Policies:
  • Crackdown on H-1B visas and removal of birthright citizenship could adversely impact Indian professionals and their families.
  • In 2022, Mexico was the top country of birth for immigrants who arrived in the last year, with about 150,000 people. India (about 145,000) and China (about 90,000) were the next largest sources of immigrants.
  • 24,766 out of the total 1.3 lakh H-1B visas were issued to Indian-origin companies in the April-September 2024 period.
• Defense and Strategic Cooperation:
  • Continued focus on the Indo-Pacific and Quad partnerships could strengthen India-U.S. defense ties.
  • India has procured over $20 billion worth of U.S. defense equipment, reflecting growing defense ties.
• Energy and Climate Policies:
  • Reversal of U.S. climate commitments and focus on fossil fuels may hinder global renewable energy efforts, indirectly affecting India’s clean energy goals.
  • Reduced global momentum on climate finance may challenge India’s renewable energy targets of 500 GW by 2030.
• Geopolitical Realignments:
  • U.S. normalization with Russia may realign global power structures, creating complexities for India’s foreign policy.
  • India imports over 60% of its defense equipment from Russia, highlighting its strategic dependence on Moscow.
• Technology and Innovation Collaboration:
  • Enhanced focus on emerging technologies (e.g., AI, quantum computing) could offer opportunities for India-U.S. partnerships.
  • The U.S. Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) provides a platform for joint research and innovation.
• Cultural and People-to-People Ties:
  • Stricter U.S. immigration policies and potential deportations of undocumented Indians could affect bilateral relations.
  • The Indian diaspora in the U.S., numbering over 4.2 million, plays a significant role in fostering India-U.S. ties.

Birthright Citizenship

• About:
  • Grants citizenship to individuals born on a country’s territory, irrespective of parents’ nationality or immigration status.
• U.S. Context:
  • The 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution (1868) ensures birthright citizenship, stating all persons born in the U.S. are citizens.
• Legal Basis:
  • The principle of jus soli (right of the soil) is applied in the U.S., where anyone born on U.S. soil automatically gains citizenship.
• Impact on India:
  • Indian-American Population:
    • As of 2024, over 5.4 million Indian Americans make up 1.47% of the U.S. population.
    • Two-thirds are first-generation immigrants, many of whom could be impacted by the loss of birthright citizenship for their children.
    • India’s government is prepared to repatriate 18,000 illegal Indian migrants in the U.S., showing a willingness to avoid a trade war.
  • Indian Students in the U.S.:
    • Indian students are the second-largest group of international students in the U.S., with approximately 200,000 students in 2024.
    • The new policy could discourage new students and families from seeking opportunities in the U.S., opting for more immigration-friendly countries like Canada, which received over 120,000 Indian students in 2024.
  • Economic Contribution:
    • Indian Americans are vital to key sectors like technology, healthcare, and education.
    • Indian-born professionals constitute about 25% of the U.S. tech workforce, with significant contributions from Silicon Valley.
  • Birth Tourism:
    • Birth tourism, where women travel to the U.S. to secure citizenship for their children, mainly comes from countries like India and China.
    • Around 33,000 births to non-citizen mothers were reported in the U.S. in 2020, with a significant number from India.

Financial Implications of US Withdrawal from WHO

• Impact on WHO Budget:
  • The United States contributes 22.5% of assessed contributions, approximately $138 million out of the $578 million total.
  • Contributes 13% of voluntary contributions, equal to $356.3 million in 2023.
  • Overall, the US funds about 20% of WHO’s budget.
• China’s Contribution:
  • Contributes $87.6 million (15%) in assessed contributions.
  • Only $3.9 million (0.14%) in voluntary contributions, much less than the US.
• Global Response:
  • Other nations, including Australia, Indonesia, and Spain, pledged $1.7 billion in 2024.
  • Increased WHO’s secured funding to 53% for its 2025-28 programs.
• Challenges:
  • Withdrawal of US funding could create significant financial gaps.
  • May undermine global health programs and pandemic preparedness efforts.
• Impact on India:
  • WHO Funding Cuts:
    • Will affect health programs in India, including work on neglected tropical diseases, HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, and antimicrobial resistance.
  • Immunisation Programs:
    • WHO plays a crucial role in India’s immunisation program, including monitoring vaccine coverage.
  • Loss of US Expertise:
    • May reduce WHO’s capacity to provide global health guidelines and implement local programs.

Way Forward for India in Strengthening India-US Relations

• Defense and Strategic Cooperation:
  • Expand joint military exercises and enhance collaboration in defense technology under initiatives like INDUS-X.
  • Increase co-production of defense equipment through agreements like BECA and COMCASA.
• Trade and Economic Relations:
  • Resolve trade disputes and ensure better market access for Indian goods and services.
  • Engage actively in the India-U.S. Trade Policy Forum (TPF) to address tariff issues and IT service concerns.
• Funding from Alternative Sources:
  • Collaborate with philanthropies like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and explore private sector investments to fill the funding gaps left by WHO.
  • Pursue innovative financing models for health programs, including public-private partnerships.
• Technology and Innovation Collaboration:
  • Leverage the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) to foster partnerships in AI, semiconductors, and quantum computing.
  • Strengthen research and development links between Indian and U.S. universities and industries.
• Climate and Energy Goals:
  • Deepen cooperation under the Strategic Clean Energy Partnership (SCEP) to advance renewable energy and hydrogen projects.
  • Seek U.S. investments in India’s clean energy sector to meet its 500 GW renewable energy target by 2030.
• Indian Diaspora’s Role:
  • Leverage the influence of the 4.2 million-strong Indian diaspora in the U.S. to bolster bilateral ties.
  • Promote cultural and educational exchanges to create goodwill and enhance people-to-people connections.
• Immigration Issues:
  • Advocate for reforms in U.S. visa policies, particularly H-1B visas, to benefit Indian professionals.
  • Enhance diplomatic engagement to ensure smoother deportation processes for undocumented Indians.
• Geopolitical Challenges:
  • Maintain a balanced approach between the U.S., Russia, and China while leveraging strategic partnerships like Quad.
  • Support U.S. Indo-Pacific strategies to counterbalance Chinese influence while securing India’s regional interests.

Conclusion

The evolving dynamics of U.S.-India relations under Trump 2.0 present both challenges and opportunities. By focusing on strategic partnerships, addressing economic and policy disputes, and enhancing collaboration in defense, technology, and clean energy, India can solidify its role as a key partner to the U.S. while safeguarding its national interests. Balancing geopolitical shifts and leveraging the Indian diaspora’s influence will be crucial in navigating this complex landscape. Through proactive engagement and strategic initiatives, India can strengthen its bilateral ties and contribute to a stable and prosperous global order.

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Other Related Information

Executive Orders

• Definition:
  • Executive orders are legally binding directives issued by the US President to manage federal operations or address national issues without the need for Congressional approval.
• Constitutional Basis:
  • Rooted in Article II of the US Constitution.
• Purpose:
  • Used for significant policy changes and routine administrative tasks.
  • Allows the President to exert authority over federal agencies and national matters.

Alien Enemies Act of 1798

• Empowers the President:
  • Grants the U.S. President authority to deport aliens deemed a threat to national security, especially during wartime.
• Historical Invocation:
  • Used during the War of 1812, WWI, and WWII to target immigrants based on their ancestry, such as Germans, Austro-Hungarians, Japanese, and Italians.
• Trump’s Usage:
  • Cited by Trump to bypass immigration courts and expedite deportations.

U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Deal

• Bilateral Agreement:
  • Allows India to access nuclear technology and fuel for civilian purposes.
  • Signed in 2008, also known as the 123 Agreement.
  • Enabled India to engage in nuclear trade despite not being a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
  • Granted India access to nuclear fuel, reactors, and technology for civilian purposes while committing to the separation of its civilian and military nuclear programs under IAEA safeguards.
• Challenges:
  • Liability Risk:
    • India’s Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act (2010) places liability on suppliers, contrary to global norms.
    • U.S. companies like GE and Westinghouse have refrained from participation due to potential risks.
    • Russian entities, being government-backed, have continued to expand their role in India.
  • Technological Barriers:
    • U.S. companies need to provide cutting-edge technology at competitive prices.
    • Indian authorities are wary of high costs and past experiences of cost overruns in nuclear projects.
  • Regulatory Concerns:
    • Security issues regarding dual-use technology and its potential diversion.
    • Alignment of export control systems between India and the U.S.
  • Commercial Viability:
    • The absence of affordable nuclear technology from the U.S. has stalled progress on constructing plants.
    • Westinghouse’s proposed six nuclear plants in India, announced in 2016, remain unbuilt.

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Related PYQ

How will I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA) grouping transform India’s position in global politics? [UPSC CSE – 2022 Mains]

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Practice Question

Analyze the impacts of Donald Trump’s second term as the 47th President of the United States on India. How should India navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by this new ‘Trumpian’ era?

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Guidelines to Answer

• Introduction:
  • Briefly introduce Donald Trump’s second term and its significance.
  • Mention the key areas of impact on India.
• Trade and Economic Relations:
  • Discuss the increased pressure to open Indian markets and address trade imbalances.
  • Explain the implications of tariffs and protectionism on Indian exports like pharmaceuticals and IT services.
• Immigration Policies:
  • Analyze the impact of H-1B visa crackdowns and the removal of birthright citizenship on Indian professionals and their families.
  • Mention the statistics of Indian immigrants and students in the U.S.
• Defense and Strategic Cooperation:
  • Highlight the continued focus on the Indo-Pacific and Quad partnerships.
  • Discuss the procurement of U.S. defense equipment and its significance.
• Energy and Climate Policies:
  • Explain the effects of U.S. climate policy reversals on India’s clean energy goals.
  • Discuss the challenges in achieving India’s renewable energy targets.
• Geopolitical Realignments:
  • Analyze the implications of U.S. normalization with Russia on India’s foreign policy.
  • Mention India’s strategic dependence on Russian defense equipment.
• Technology and Innovation Collaboration:
  • Discuss the opportunities for partnerships in emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing.
  • Highlight the importance of research and development links between Indian and U.S. institutions.
• Cultural and People-to-People Ties:
  • Explain the impact of stricter U.S. immigration policies on the Indian diaspora.
  • Discuss the role of the Indian diaspora in fostering bilateral ties.
• Way Forward:
  • Suggest strategies for India to strengthen defense and strategic cooperation with the U.S.
  • Propose measures to boost trade and economic relations.
• Conclusion:
  • Summarize the key points discussed.
  • Emphasize the importance of strategic partnerships and proactive engagement in navigating the challenges and opportunities of Trump’s second term.

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