India’s demographic journey of hits and misses

India’s demographic journey of hits and misses

Syllabus
GS Paper 1 – Indian Society – Population and associated issues.

Context
July 11th is observed as world population day

Source
The Hindu| Editorial dated 11th  July  2024


World Population Day, observed on July 11, commemorates the establishment of the day by the United Nations in 1989, following a proposal by Dr. K.C. Zachariah. The day aims to address global challenges related to population, including poverty, health, and gender inequality, particularly in developing countries. The demographic journey of India over the decades offers valuable insights into these issues and their impact on sustainable development.

  • Decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
    • The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a demographic measure that estimates the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime, assuming she experiences the current age-specific fertility rates throughout her reproductive years (usually ages 15-49).
    • The TFR decreased from 3.4 in 1992 to 2 in 2021, dropping below the replacement level of 2.1.
    • This indicates a shift towards smaller family norms, which can contribute to better resource allocation and economic stability.
  • Reduction in Mortality Rates:
    • Significant progress in reducing mortality rates due to improved healthcare and living conditions.
    • Key indicators like Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) and infant mortality rate have seen notable declines.
  • Increased Life Expectancy:
    • Advancements in medical infrastructure have led to an increase in the average life expectancy of Indians.
    • Reflects improvements in public health and living standards.
  • Demographic Shift:
  • Ageing Population:
    • The proportion of individuals aged 60 years and above was 8.6% in 2011 and is projected to rise to 19.5% by 2050.
  • Demographic Dividend:
    • A larger working-age population relative to the dependent population can lead to increased economic productivity and growth.
    • Requires investment in education, skills development, and job creation.
  • Smaller Family Norms:
    • The decline in fertility rates signifies a shift towards smaller family sizes, which can contribute to better resource allocation and improved living standards.
  • Robust Healthcare System:
    • The reduction in mortality rates and increased life expectancy are indicators of a robust healthcare system and improved living conditions.
    • Highlights the need for continued investment in healthcare infrastructure and services.
  • Geriatric Care and Social Security:
    • The ageing population requires long-term plans focusing on geriatric care and providing adequate social security benefits.
    • Importance of creating a supportive environment for the elderly, including healthcare, social inclusion, and financial security.
  • Urban Infrastructure Challenges:
    • Rapid rural-to-urban migration poses challenges to the existing urban infrastructure, necessitating improvements in urban planning and resource management.
  • Women’s Labor Force Participation:
    •  Low participation of women  in the labour force and their underrepresentation in political spheres are critical issues that need to be addressed for sustainable development.
    • Promoting gender equality in education, employment, and governance is essential for overall progress.
  • Decrease in Poverty Rate:
    • The proportion of the population living below the poverty line reduced from 48% in 1990 to 10% in 2019.
  • Reduction in Hunger:
    • The proportion of the population suffering from hunger reduced from 18.3% in 2001 to 16.6% in 2021.
    • Programs like the Prime Minister’s Overarching Scheme for Holistic Nourishment (POSHAN Abhiyaan) launched in 2018 aim to address malnutrition, POSHAN Abhiyaan
    • Focuses on improving nutritional outcomes for children, pregnant women, and lactating mothers.
  • Health Improvements
    • Significant reductions in mortality rates for children under five and infants can be observed.
    • Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) decreased from 384.4 in 2000 to 102.7 in 2020.
    • Improved quality and coverage of healthcare services have contributed to these achievements. For instance, expansion of healthcare infrastructure and services, including immunization programs and maternal health initiatives led to improved quality.

While progress has been made by India since 2015, it has been insufficient to achieve the targets.

  • Wealth Disparity:
    • According to Oxfam The top 10% of India’s population holds 77% of the national wealth, highlighting severe income inequality.
    • Development must be equitably distributed to achieve sustainable development.
  • Malnutrition Issues:
    • Despite progress, India contributes a third of the global burden of malnutrition. Achieving the target of ‘Zero Hunger’ by 2030 remains challenging.
    •  Global Hunger Index (2023): India’s rank was 111 out of 125 countries, indicating significant challenges in addressing hunger and malnutrition.
    • Stunting, Wasting, and Underweight: High prevalence of these issues among children below five years.
    • Anaemia among Women:Poses serious health challenges, affecting productivity and overall well-being.
  • Healthcare Needs
    • Double Burden of Diseases: India faces both communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), complicating healthcare needs.
    • Elderly Health Needs: Rising health needs of the elderly require comprehensive geriatric care.
    • Out-of-Pocket Expenditures: High costs associated with NCDs can push families into poverty.
  • Policy Formulation:
    • Implement policies aimed at reducing income disparity to ensure inclusive growth.
    • Focus on social protection programs, progressive taxation, and wealth redistribution.
    • Promote community-based approaches and public-private partnerships.
  • Harness Demographic Dividend
    • Job Creation:Develop strategies to create employment opportunities for the growing youth population.
    • Invest in education, skills development, and entrepreneurship to boost employability.
  • Strengthen Health and Nutrition Programs
    • Budget Allocation: Increase funding for health and nutrition sectors to improve program effectiveness.
    • Program Strengthening: Enhance existing programs to better address malnutrition and healthcare needs.
  • Focus on Gender Equality
    • Implement policies to increase women’s labour force participation, political representation, and social protection measures.
    • Address cultural and structural barriers to gender equality.

India’s progress towards the SDGs is intertwined with its population dynamics. Addressing issues related to income inequality, employment, healthcare, nutrition, and gender equality is essential for sustainable development. Multi-sectoral collaboration and political will are crucial for India to achieve the SDG targets by 2030.


“Demographic Dividend in India will remain only theoretical unless our manpower becomes more educated, aware, skilled and creative.” What measures have been taken by the government to enhance the capacity of our population to be more productive and employable? [ UPSC Civil Services Exam – Mains 2016]


The demographic dynamics of a country significantly influence its development trajectory. Analyze the demographic trends in India and their impact on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [250 words]


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