Syllabus
GS Paper 2 – India and its neighbourhood Relations
Context
Bangladesh crisis and implications for India
Source
The Indian Express| Editorial dated 7th August 2024
India – Bangladesh Relations
Sheikh Hasina’s unexpected resignation as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh marks the end of a significant era in South Asian politics. Her 15-year tenure saw substantial economic growth and strengthened India-Bangladesh relations, but it also faced challenges such as democratic erosion and increasing public discontent. This political shift in Bangladesh creates a complex scenario for India, necessitating a strategic reassessment of bilateral ties and regional stability.
Historical Ties
- Foundation in 1971 Liberation War: The relationship between India and Bangladesh was established during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, where India provided essential military and material support for Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan.
- Early Years of Strain: Despite the strong start, relations deteriorated in the mid-1970s as military regimes took over in Bangladesh. Anti-India sentiment grew due to issues such as boundary disputes, insurgency, and water sharing conflicts.
- Instability and Recovery: The instability persisted for several decades until Sheikh Hasina assumed power in 1996. Her leadership marked a turning point with the signing of the Ganga water-sharing treaty, ushering in a new phase of bilateral relations.
- Enhanced Cooperation: Since then, India and Bangladesh have strengthened their cooperation across various sectors, including trade, energy, infrastructure, connectivity, and defense.
Significance of Bangladesh for India
- Geo-strategic Importance
- Bangladesh provides India access to the Bay of Bengal and routes for trade and connectivity with Southeast Asia.
- Geo-political Importance
- A stable and friendly Bangladesh is crucial for India’s security and counter-terrorism efforts.
- Bangladesh’s support is vital for India’s bid for permanent UNSC membership.
- Economic Importance
- Bangladesh is a critical market for India’s exports and bilateral trade, essential for India’s economic goals.
- Cultural and Civilisational Ties
- Bangladesh has significant Hindu Bengali population and important religious-cultural sites.
- International Cooperation
India-Bangladesh Relations Under Sheikh Hasina’s Regime
- Eradication of Anti-India Terror Groups
- Hasina’s tenure saw the eradication of anti-India terror groups like Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, which had safe havens during the BNP-Jamaat rule.
- Increase in Bilateral Trade
- Bilateral trade deepened, reaching $13 billion in FY 2023–24.
- Bangladesh became India’s biggest trade partner in the subcontinent, benefiting from duty-free quota access under SAFTA since 2011.
- Increased Connectivity Projects
- Infrastructure projects, such as the Akhaura-Agartala rail link and Khulna-Mongla Port rail line , enhanced connectivity.
- Agreements allowed the use of Chittagong and Mongla ports for easier cargo movement.
- Discussions on FTA
- Negotiations for a free trade agreement aimed at reducing or eliminating customs duties and easing trade norms.
- Land Boundary Agreement (2015)
- Resolved long-standing disputes by swapping islands and allowing residents to choose their country of residence.
- Energy Cooperation
- Deepened energy ties, with Bangladesh importing nearly 2,000 megawatts of electricity from India.
- The India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline was established for transporting high-speed diesel.
- Defence Cooperation
- Conducted joint military exercises and maintained the longest land boundary shared by India with any neighbour.
- Tourism Sector
- Bangladeshis made up a large portion of tourists in India, significantly contributing to tourism revenue.
- Medical Cooperation
- Bangladesh accounted for over 35% of India’s international medical patients, contributing to more than 50% of medical tourism revenue.
Reasons Behind Sheikh Hasina’s Exit
- Student Demonstrations
- A peaceful student protest against a 30% reservation for freedom fighters in civil services escalated into a nationwide movement.
- The government’s heavy-handed response, including attacks by the Awami League’s student wing and a strict curfew with a shoot-on-sight order, inflamed tensions.
- Economic Slowdown
- Although Bangladesh experienced rapid economic growth under Sheikh Hasina, the pandemic and a slowing global economy severely impacted the garment industry.
- This led to increased unemployment and inflation, fuelling public discontent.
- Eroding Democratic Values
- The parliamentary elections in 2014, 2018, and 2024 were controversial, marked by low turnout, violence, and opposition boycotts, raising concerns about democratic erosion.
- Reliance on Hard Power
- Hasina’s government increasingly relied on hard power to maintain control, creating a climate of fear and repression.
- The Digital Security Act 2018 was used to silence critics and stifle freedom of online expression.
- Economic Inequality
- Despite overall economic progress, bank scams, corruption, and an increasing list of defaulters fuelled public discontent.
- Companies like CLC Power and Western Marine Shipyard were among top defaulters, with bad loans amounting to 965 crore to 1,649 crore Bangladeshi Taka.
Challenges Created by Sheikh Hasina’s Exit
- Security Challenges
- Risk of resurgence of anti-India groups, adding to India’s security concerns with Pakistan and China .
- Threat to Connectivity
- Potential disruptions could affect India’s access to the Northeast, increasing dependence on the narrow “Chicken’s Neck” corridor.
- Bilateral Trade and FTA Jeopardy
- Potential stagnation of bilateral trade growth and free trade agreement negotiations.
- Deterioration of People-to-People Ties
- Risks of backlash from Bangladeshi people and new power centres in Dhaka with past grudges against India.
- Geopolitical Challenges
- Pakistan and China might exploit the political change to challenge India’s influence in Bangladesh.
Other Challenges in India-Bangladesh Relations
- Transboundary River Waters
- Disputes over river water sharing, like the Teesta river, remain unresolved.
- Rohingya Deportation
- Conflicting interests in deportation priorities between India and Bangladesh.
- Cross-Border Terrorism and Infiltration
- Ongoing issues with terrorism, infiltration, and associated criminal activities along the border.
- Drug Smuggling and Trafficking
- Persistent drug trafficking challenges through the India-Bangladesh corridor.
- Growing Chinese Influence
- China’s substantial investments in Bangladesh through the Belt and Road Initiative challenge India’s regional influence.
- Attacks on Minorities
- Ethnic and communal tensions strain people-to-people and cultural relations.
Recommended Approach for India
- Support for Popular Expression
- India should support the expression of popular will, as seen in Nepal’s 2006 movement for democracy.
- Readiness to Expand Bilateral Ties
- India should express willingness to expand economic engagement with a successor government, avoiding labelling the political change as anti-India.
- Cautious and Discreet Reactions
- Maintain a cautious and open stance for continuing beneficial ties, similar to the approach with Maldives under Mohamed Muizzu.
- Joint Task Forces and Smart Border Management
- Establish joint task forces for effective cross-border crime control and smart border management.
- Digital Connectivity Corridor
- Develop high-speed internet and digital service connectivity to enhance trade and collaboration.
- Early Conclusion of FTA
- Finalize the free trade agreement before Bangladesh loses its LDC status in 2026, ensuring it’s not misused by China to dump goods in India.
Conclusion
The departure of Sheikh Hasina from the political landscape of Bangladesh signals a pivotal moment in South Asian geopolitics. For India, this change presents both challenges and opportunities. The robust relationship built during Hasina’s tenure needs careful nurturing to ensure continued cooperation and stability.
References
Related PYQ
Analyze internal security threats and transborder crimes along Myanmar, Bangladesh and Pakistan borders including Line of Control (LoC). Also discuss the role played by various security forces in this regard. [ UPSC Civil Services Exam – Mains 2018]
Practice Question
Discuss the implications of Sheikh Hasina’s resignation as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh on India-Bangladesh relations? [150 words]