China’s ‘grey-zone’ warfare tactics against Taiwan

Syllabus: GS Paper 3 – Border Areas (security challenges and management thereof); Security forces & agencies (mandate); Role of External State & Non-State actors in creating internal security challenges

Context: China continues to pressurize Taiwan with its ‘grey zone warfare’ tactics.

The Hindu| Editorial dated 14^th June  2024

Grey zone warfare refers to a space between direct conflict and peace in international relations. It involves activities that are neither fully war nor peace but are aimed at achieving strategic objectives without escalating to full-scale conflict.

Characteristics

• Ambiguity:
  • Actions are covert or have unclear attribution.
  • The true nature and origin of the activities are often difficult to discern, providing plausible deniability for the actors involved.
• Indirect Methods:
  • Use of non-traditional warfare techniques.
  • Activities may include cyberattacks, economic coercion, and influence operations instead of conventional military engagement.
• Avoiding Direct Conflict:
  • Designed to achieve objectives without triggering open warfare.
  • The goal is to gain strategic advantages without crossing the threshold that would necessitate a traditional military response.

Activities Involved

• Nefarious Economic Activities:
  • Includes economic sanctions, debt traps, and economic coercion.
  • Countries may use financial tools to weaken adversaries economically.
• Influence Operations:
  • Disinformation campaigns, propaganda, and psychological operations.
  • Efforts to sway public opinion, destabilize societies, or undermine the credibility of governments.
• Cyberattacks:
  • Targeting infrastructure, stealing data, and disrupting communications.
  • Utilizing cyber means to achieve strategic goals without physical confrontation.
• Mercenary Operations:
  • Use of private military contractors.
  • Engaging non-state actors to carry out military or paramilitary activities.
• Assassinations:
  • Targeting key individuals to destabilize or influence adversaries.
  • Removing influential figures to create political or operational vacuums.
• Proxy Wars and Insurgencies:
  • Supporting non-state actors to destabilize regions.
  • Indirectly engaging in conflicts by backing insurgent groups or proxies.

Examples of Grey Zone Warfare

• Cold War Era:
  • The rivalry between the US and USSR led to the prevalence of grey zone tactics due to nuclear deterrence.
  • Direct conflict was avoided due to the risk of nuclear escalation, leading to covert operations and proxy wars.
• South China Sea:
  • China’s military presence and actions against the Philippines, including the deployment of maritime militia vessels and aggressive maritime actions.
  • Efforts to assert territorial claims through persistent and provocative actions.
• Taiwan:
  • Increased Chinese military activities aimed at wearing down Taiwanese defenses without initiating full-scale conflict.
  • Regular incursions and military exercises to intimidate and pressure Taiwan.
• US Actions:
  • Economic sanctions and maritime reconnaissance against China as part of strategic competition.
  • Using economic and surveillance tools to counter China’s growing influence.

Reasons for Grey Zone Warfare

• Cost and Risk:
  • Conventional conflicts are costly and risky, especially with the potential for nuclear escalation.
  • Grey zone tactics allow for strategic gains without the high costs of traditional warfare.
• Strategic Advantage:
  • Provides a means for less powerful nations to challenge more powerful adversaries.
  • Levelling the playing field by using unconventional methods.
• Projection of Strength:
  • Demonstrates capability and resolve without crossing the threshold into open conflict.
  • Sending a message of strength and determination through indirect actions.
• Normalization of Claims:
  • Repeated presence in disputed areas to assert territorial claims.
  • Gradually establishing de facto control over contested regions.

Challenges

• Covert Nature:
  • Difficulty in responding appropriately due to the indirect and often hidden nature of actions.
  • Hard to attribute actions directly, complicating diplomatic and military responses.
• Escalation Risks:
  • Potential for unintended escalation across multiple dimensions, complicating crisis management.
  • Actions can spiral out of control, leading to broader conflicts.
• Legitimization of Force:
  • Actions designed to provoke a response, which can then be used to justify further aggression.
  • Creating situations where retaliatory measures seem justified, escalating tensions.

Conclusion

Grey zone warfare is a complex and evolving form of conflict that poses unique challenges for international relations and national security. Understanding its characteristics, activities, and motivations is crucial for developing effective responses and strategies to manage and mitigate its impacts. Effective strategies require vigilance, adaptability, and a comprehensive understanding of both the overt and covert methods employed in grey zone tactics.

References – Indian Express

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