Syllabus
GS Paper II – India and its neighborhood- relations.
Context
India has surpassed Japan to claim the position of the third most powerful nation in Asia.
Asia Power Index (API)
Introduction
India’s recent ascent to the position of the third most powerful nation in Asia, surpassing Japan, marks a significant milestone in its geopolitical journey. According to the 2024 Asia Power Index by the Lowy Institute, this achievement is attributed to India’s robust economic growth, youthful population, and expanding influence in international diplomacy. This shift not only underscores India’s growing stature on the global stage but also reflects its strategic advancements in military capability, economic resilience, and diplomatic engagements. As India continues to strengthen its regional and global presence, it sets a precedent for emerging powers in the Asia-Pacific region.
Asia Power Index (API)
- The Asia Power Index gauges the capacity of nations to influence and adapt to their external surroundings, assessing power dynamics across Asia.
- Initiated by the Lowy Institute in 2018.
- It is an annual assessment of power dynamics within the Asia-Pacific region.
- The Index evaluates 27 countries in the Asia-Pacific, focusing on their ability to shape and respond to external environments.
- It emphasizes both the material capabilities of states and their influence on the global stage.
- The 2024 edition is one of the most thorough evaluations of power distribution in the region to date. Timor-Leste has been included for the first time, highlighting its rising significance in Southeast Asia.
- The Index is divided into resource-based and influence-based determinants.
- Resource-Based Determinants:
- Economic Capability: Assesses a nation’s economic strength through indicators like GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP), technological advancement, and global economic connectivity.
- Military Capability: Measures conventional military strength based on defense spending, armed forces, weapon systems, and key capabilities such as long-range power projection.
- Resilience: Evaluates the internal capacity to deter threats to state stability, including institutional robustness, geopolitical security, and resource security.
- Future Resources: Predicts the future distribution of resources, including economic, military, and demographic factors projected for 2035.
- Influence-Based Determinants:
- Economic Relationships: The ability to exert leverage through trade, investment, and economic diplomacy.
- Defense Networks: The strength of alliances and partnerships, measured through military cooperation and arms transfers.
- Diplomatic Influence: The extent of a nation’s diplomatic reach, participation in multilateral forums, and foreign policy ambition.
- Cultural Influence: The capacity to shape international public opinion through cultural exports, media, and people-to-people connections.
- A country’s overall power score is derived from a weighted average of these eight measures, encompassing 131 individual indicators.
Implications of geopolitical indices for regional stability
- Increased Tensions: High geopolitical risk indices often indicate heightened tensions between countries. This can lead to increased military spending, arms races, and a general atmosphere of distrust.
- Economic Impact: Geopolitical instability can disrupt trade routes, affect global supply chains, and lead to economic sanctions. This can have a ripple effect on regional economies, potentially leading to economic downturns.
- Diplomatic Relations: Countries may shift their alliances and partnerships based on the perceived stability of their neighbors. This can lead to new diplomatic initiatives or the breakdown of existing agreements.
- Humanitarian Concerns: Increased instability often leads to humanitarian crises, including displacement of people, increased refugee flows, and human rights violations.
- Nuclear Risks: In regions with nuclear-armed states, such as Southern Asia, geopolitical instability can increase the risk of nuclear conflict. This is particularly concerning given the potential for crises to escalate rapidly.
India’s status in Asia Power Index
- India’s Status in Asia: India is classified as a middle power within the Asian continent.
- Ranking and Score: India holds the 3rd position with an overall score of 39.1 out of 100.
- Recent Advancement: In 2024, India surpassed Japan, becoming the third-most influential nation in Asia, with an increase of 2.8 points in its score.
- Strength in Future Resources: India excels in the future resources category, ranking 3rd, only behind the United States and China.
- Weakness in Economic Relationships: India’s lowest performance is in the economic relationships category, due to its limited participation in regional economic integration.
- Influence vs. Resources: Despite its substantial resources, India wields less regional influence than anticipated.
India’s potential to Superpower Status
- Demographic Advantage:
- By 2030, India is anticipated to have the largest working-age population globally.
- This demographic shift will act as a significant driver for global economic growth.
- Strategic Global Role:
- India’s involvement in regional security frameworks like the Quad.
- Expanding alliances with major global powers emphasize its role in Indo-Pacific stability.
- Economic Progress:
- Focus on economic self-sufficiency.
- Ongoing reforms in infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology sectors.
- These efforts are enhancing India’s position on the global stage.
- Climate Leadership:
- India’s proactive measures in climate change mitigation.
- Establishing itself as a leader among emerging economies.
- Setting environmental standards and contributing to global climate objectives.
Key Driving Factors
- Economic Expansion: India is among the fastest-growing major economies globally, driven by a youthful workforce that positions it as a hub for innovation and investment. Initiatives like “Make in India” and the push towards “Atmanirbhar Bharat” have bolstered its industrial and economic foundation.
- Military Modernisation: Significant investments in modernising the military have elevated India’s strategic importance. Advanced missile systems, nuclear capabilities, and an expanding naval presence, especially in the Indian Ocean, have made India a pivotal player in regional security.
- Diplomatic Influence: India’s participation in multilateral organisations such as the United Nations, G20, BRICS, and Quad has amplified its influence. Strategic partnerships with the United States, Australia, Japan, and the European Union are enhancing its global presence.
- Technological and Scientific Advancements: Progress in space exploration, renewable energy, and information technology has cemented India’s position as a leader in emerging sectors. Initiatives like Digital India, a thriving start-up ecosystem, and advances in renewable energy capacity have strengthened India’s status as a technological powerhouse.
- Cultural Soft Power: India’s rich cultural heritage, including Bollywood, yoga, and a vast diaspora, has significantly contributed to its rising soft power on the global stage.
How can India leverage its soft power to become a global leader?
India has a rich tapestry of cultural, historical, and intellectual assets that can be leveraged to enhance its global influence through soft power.
- Cultural Diplomacy: Promoting Indian culture, including Bollywood, classical music, dance, and festivals, can help build a positive image globally. Cultural exchanges and festivals can foster mutual understanding and appreciation.
- Educational Exchange: Expanding scholarships and educational programs for international students can help build long-term relationships. Indian universities can collaborate with global institutions to enhance their reputation and influence.
- Healthcare and Ayurveda: Promoting traditional Indian medicine and wellness practices, such as Ayurveda and yoga, can enhance India’s image as a hub for holistic health. Medical tourism can also be a significant soft power tool.
- Diaspora Engagement: The Indian diaspora, one of the largest in the world, can act as ambassadors of Indian culture and values. Engaging with the diaspora through various programs can strengthen India’s global network.
- Humanitarian Aid and Development: Providing aid and support to developing countries can build goodwill and strengthen diplomatic ties. India’s role in international organizations and peacekeeping missions can also enhance its global standing.
- Media and Communication: Leveraging media to tell India’s story can counter negative stereotypes and highlight its achievements. Platforms like Doordarshan and All India Radio, along with digital media, can play a crucial role.
Challenges for India becoming Super Power
- Economic Inequality: Despite economic growth, substantial income disparities remain, especially in rural regions.
- Infrastructure Investment: India requires an investment of $840 billion over the next 15 years to support its rapidly expanding economy.
- Regional Geopolitical Issues: Ongoing border tensions with China and Pakistan challenge India’s regional stability.
- Internal Security Concerns: Internal security threats such as naxalism and insurgency impact India’s global military standing.
- UN Security Council Membership: Securing a permanent seat on the UN Security Council is crucial for superpower status, with China posing a significant obstacle.
Way forward
- Potential to Shape Asia and Beyond:
- Despite existing challenges, the nation’s capacity to influence the future of Asia and the world is more robust than ever.
- Investment in Physical Infrastructure:
- To fully harness its potential, India must persist in enhancing its physical infrastructure, including:
- Transportation
- Healthcare
- Education
- To fully harness its potential, India must persist in enhancing its physical infrastructure, including:
- Strengthening Regional Relationships:
- Bolster ties with neighboring countries through regional organizations.
- Mitigate the influence of China in the region.
- Leveraging the Indian Diaspora:
- Utilize the extensive Indian diaspora worldwide to enhance:
- Soft Power
- Diplomatic Influence
- Utilize the extensive Indian diaspora worldwide to enhance:
Conclusion
India’s rise to become the third most powerful country in Asia, surpassing Japan, reflects its robust economic growth, young population, and increasing global influence. This achievement highlights India’s growing stature in international diplomacy and its potential as a future superpower. However, challenges remain, such as economic disparities and regional tensions. Japan’s slower population growth and economic stagnation have contributed to this shift2. Overall, India’s ascent marks a significant milestone, but sustained efforts are needed to address internal and external challenges to maintain and enhance its position.
Reference: BS
Related PYQ
‘China is using its economic relations and positive trade surplus as tools to develop potential military power status in Asia’, In the light of this statement, discuss its impact on India as her neighbor. [UPSC CSE – 2017 Mains]
Practice Question
India has overtaken Japan to become the third most powerful country in Asia. Discuss the factors that have contributed to this shift in power dynamics and analyze the implications for regional and global geopolitics. [250 words]
Guidelines to Answer
- Introduction:
- Briefly introduce the context of India’s rise in power within Asia.
- Mention the significance of this shift in the regional power dynamics.
- Factors Contributing to India’s Rise
- Implications for Regional Geopolitics
- Implications for Global Geopolitics
- Conclusion:
- Summarize the key points discussed.
- Reflect on the future prospects of India’s role in regional and global geopolitics.