Syllabus
GS Paper 2 – India and its Neighbourhood
Applications where to apply?
When asked about
– China – Russia relations
– New cold war
– Geopolitics
Context
The recent summit in Beijing between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping has both short and long-term implications.
Source
The Hindu | Editorial dated 23rd May 2024
A No-Limit bromance that is not just a bilateral matter
The recent summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing (May 16-17, 2024) marks a significant milestone in their bilateral relations, emphasizing their strategic partnership and its global implications. With over four decades of varying phases in Russia-China ties, their current alignment carries substantial geostrategic and geoeconomic consequences, particularly for India.
Phases of Russia-China Ties
- 19th Century Expansion
- Czarist Russia’s Expansion: During the 19th century, Russia capitalized on China’s weakness and instability, aggressively expanding its territory all the way to the Pacific Ocean.
- Soviet Territorial Control: The Soviet Union maintained control over these regions, solidifying its presence in territories that were once part of China.
- Comintern Brotherhood (1949-1962)
- Initial Friendship: After the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, the Soviet Union and China enjoyed a decade of close cooperation, united under the communist ideology.
- Deterioration of Relations: The relationship soured due to ideological disputes and geopolitical tensions, notably exacerbated by China’s 1962 attack on India and the 1969 armed clashes over the Ussuri River border.
- US-China Rapprochement (1972 onwards)
- Nixon’s Visit to Beijing: The historic visit by US President Richard Nixon in 1972 marked a strategic pivot, aiming to pull China away from Soviet influence.
- China’s Western Tilt: Under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership, China embraced economic reforms and modernization with significant Western support, leading to massive investments and technological transfers.
- Weakening Russia-China Ties: The collapse of the Soviet Union further weakened the bilateral relationship, with newly independent Central Asian Republics becoming arenas for competition between Russia and China.
- Post-2012 Phase
- US “Pivot to Asia”: The US responded to China’s growing assertiveness with a strategic pivot to Asia, adopting tougher policies to contain China’s rise.
- Strengthened Russia-China Relations: Facing increasing friction with the West, China and Russia declared a “No Limits” partnership in 2022, solidifying their strategic alignment.
- Western Sanctions and Intensified Cooperation: After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions pushed Moscow closer to Beijing, resulting in deeper economic and strategic ties.
Current Phase of Russia-China Relations
- Economic Convergence
- Bilateral Trade Growth: In 2023, bilateral trade between Russia and China surged to $240 billion, a significant increase driven by their mutual economic dependencies.
- Russian Dependence on China: Russia relies heavily on China for its energy exports and critical materials needed for its military operations and sanctioned industries.
- Strategic Cooperation
- Energy Supplies: Russia became the largest supplier of crude oil to China in 2023, averaging 2.1 million barrels per day.
- Anti-US Stance
- Accusations Against the US: The Beijing joint statement strongly criticized the US for its “dual containment” strategy against both Russia and China and the negative impacts of its Indo-Pacific Strategy.
- Joint Anti-US Offensive: The language used indicated a coordinated effort by Russia and China to counter US influence globally.
Impacts of the Summit
- Enhanced Material Support:
- The summit is expected to lead to increased, albeit discreet, cooperation in supplying Russia with dual-use materials critical for its military and economic needs.
- Resource and Technology Exchange:
- In return, China may negotiate better terms for Russian resources, mining rights in Siberia, and access to Russian technological expertise in areas like avionics, nuclear power, and space.
- Strategic Dependencies:
- By supporting Russia, China can keep Moscow dependent on its support, while the US remains occupied with European issues, giving China greater freedom to assert its influence in Asia.
Long-term Impacts of the Summit
- Economic and Diplomatic Balancing
- Challenge of Dual Engagements: China’s strategy of maintaining profitable relationships with both Russia and the West might become increasingly difficult due to mounting Western pressure.
- Leveraging the Russia Partnership: Continued Western sanctions and pressure may force China to more openly leverage its partnership with Russia in global geopolitics.
- Emergence of a New Cold War
- New Global Order: The summit could signal the beginning of a new Cold War, with China and Russia challenging the US-led global order established after World War II.
- China-led Initiatives: Organizations and initiatives like BRICS , the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation , the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the Belt and Road Initiative represent early structures of this potential new order.
Implications for India
- Strategic Concerns
- Assessing Russia-China Ties: India needs to critically evaluate the depth and durability of the current Russia-China partnership, especially given their historical volatility.
- Defense Supply Vulnerabilities: Russia’s growing dependence on China could impact India’s defense supplies, particularly critical amid ongoing border tensions with China.
- Global Alignment
- Evaluating Alternatives: India should carefully consider whether the current global order or a potential China-led alternative better serves its national interests.
- Higher Global Profile: India should aim for a more prominent role in the existing global architecture, reflecting its economic and strategic significance.
- Historical Lessons
- Avoiding Past Mistakes: India must avoid repeating the mistakes of the past, such as an overly ideological commitment to Non-Alignment that neglected core national interests.
- Focus on Development and Realpolitik: Prioritizing socio-economic development and pragmatic foreign policy will be crucial in navigating the emerging global dynamics.
- Strategic Autonomy
- Leveraging Strategic Autonomy: India should use its strategic autonomy to effectively navigate new global polarizations, maintaining flexibility and independence in its foreign policy.
- Clear Long-term Goals: India needs to clearly define its long-term national goals and adopt a strategic, pragmatic approach to achieve them, ensuring it capitalizes on emerging opportunities while safeguarding its interests.
Conclusion
The Putin-Xi summit highlights a pivotal moment in Russia-China relations with profound implications for global geopolitics. For India, this evolving dynamic presents both challenges and opportunities. India must adopt a clear-headed, strategic approach, leveraging its strengths and maintaining its strategic autonomy to navigate the complexities of the emerging global order effectively.
Related Topic
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as the New Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure development project launched by China in 2013. It aims to create a network of land and sea routes connecting China to other parts of Asia, Africa, and Europe.
- Scope: BRI is ambitious, with a goal to invest in over 150 countries and international organizations.
- Components: It involves building:
- Roads
- Railways
- Ports
- Energy grids
- Other infrastructure projects, including telecommunications networks and pipelines
- Goals: China envisions BRI as a way to:
- Boost trade
- Promote economic growth
- Enhance regional cooperation
- Strengthen China’s global influence
References
Related PYQ
What do you understand by ‘The String of Pearls’? How does it impact India? Briefly outline the steps taken by India to counter this. [ UPSC Civil Services Exam – Mains 2013]
Practice Question
Discuss the evolution of Russia-China relations over the past two centuries and analyze the implications of their recent strategic alignment for India. [150 words]