Syllabus
GS Paper 2 – Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.
Context
Sudan Crisis and implications on India
Source
The Hindu | Editorial dated 2nd September 2024
A crisis in WANA that no one talks about
In 2023, Sudan is facing one of the worst humanitarian crises globally due to an ongoing conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict has resulted in up to 150,000 deaths and displaced nearly 10 million people, with 2.5 million fleeing to other countries. Sudan is now on the verge of famine and battling epidemics such as cholera.
Historical Context
- Long History of Strife:
- Since its independence in 1956, Sudan has experienced continuous civil unrest and instability, marked by 15 military coups and two significant civil wars, which have resulted in 1.5 million deaths.
- The Darfur conflict , driven by the Janjaweed militia, the precursor to the RSF, has caused over 200,000 deaths and displaced 2 million people over the past two decades.
- Separation of South Sudan:
- Persistent conflicts and internal strife led to the secession of South Sudan in 2011, further fragmenting the nation and escalating tensions in the region.
Genesis of the Current Crisis
- Collapse of Governance:
- The crisis has roots in the 30-year dictatorship of Omar Hassan al-Bashir. After his ouster in 2019, a Transitional Military Council failed to maintain stability, leading to a coup in October 2021 by Gen. al-Burhan.
- The conflict escalated further in April 2023 when the RSF rejected integration into the Sudanese Army, sparking violent confrontations.
- Failed Civil-Military Co-governance:
- Initial attempts at civilian-military governance fell apart due to conflicting interests and power struggles, resulting in a breakdown of order and the resurgence of military rule.
Dynamics of the Conflict
- Military Impasse:
- Despite superior numbers and having an air force, the SAF has not been able to decisively win the conflict.
- The SAF had to relocate from Khartoum to Port Sudan, indicating a military stalemate.
- The RSF, with a background in ethnic cleansing in regions like Darfur, has had mixed successes, contributing to the complex dynamics of the conflict.
- Ethnic and Regional Dimensions:
- The ongoing war has deepened ethnic divisions, particularly in Darfur and other regions where historical grievances and alliances have led to varying local support for either the SAF or RSF.
Foreign Involvement and Interests
- Geopolitical Stakes:
- Sudan’s strategic location and rich natural resources have attracted foreign powers. Egypt and Iran support the SAF, while the UAE and Russia’s Wagner Group back the RSF.
- Chad and Libya’s Gen. Khalifah Haftar have also shown support for the RSF, complicating the conflict further with mercenary involvement from various countries.
- Conflicting Foreign Agendas:
- Foreign powers are driven by different agendas—some seek to secure economic interests like oil and gold, while others aim for geostrategic leverage along the Red Sea.
International Response
- Ineffective Diplomatic Efforts:
- Despite mediation efforts by Saudi Arabia, the U.S., IGAD, and the African Union, no ceasefire has been achieved due to the intransigence of the warring factions.
- The UN Security Council has made limited progress, passing only one aspirational resolution in nearly a year.
- Recent peace talks in Geneva also ended without a breakthrough, although limited humanitarian corridors were agreed upon.
- Limited International Impact:
- The global community’s inability to enforce a ceasefire or meaningful sanctions reflects the complexity and local intransigence of the conflict.
Indian Stakes in Sudan
- Economic Interests:
- India has significant stakes in Sudan, including $2,034 million in direct trade and $2.3 billion in investments in the oil sector.
- This includes substantial exports of sugar and petroleum products, and further economic interests through indirect trade via the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
- Strategic and People-to-People Ties:
- Strong people-to-people ties exist between India and Sudan due to Sudanese students and medical tourists in India.
- A prolonged conflict threatens these ties and may fuel Islamic militancy, potentially jeopardizing India’s broader interests in the region.
- Potential Security Concerns:
- Prolonged instability in Sudan could also result in increased radicalization and terrorism, potentially affecting Indian interests in both Sudan and the broader Middle East and Africa regions.
Conclusion
The ongoing conflict in Sudan has escalated into a severe humanitarian crisis with significant regional and global implications. While multiple international efforts have failed to secure a ceasefire, the complexities of foreign involvement and internal strife continue to fuel the conflict. For India, the stability of Sudan is crucial due to historical ties, economic interests, and the potential security risks posed by a prolonged conflict. A resolution is imperative not only for Sudan’s future but also for the stability of the broader West Asia-North Africa region.
Related PYQ
The question of India’s Energy Security constitutes the most important part of India’s economic progress. Analyze India’s energy policy cooperation with West Asian Countries. [ UPSC Civil Services Exam – Mains 2017]
Practice Question
Examine the impact of the ongoing conflict in Sudan on regional stability in the West Asia-North Africa (WANA) region and its implications for India’s foreign policy. [150 words]
Guidelines to Answer
- Introduction:
- Briefly introduce the ongoing conflict in Sudan, highlighting its scale and humanitarian impact.
- Impact on Regional Stability:
- Discuss how the conflict in Sudan affects neighboring countries and overall regional stability in WANA.
- Analyze the role of foreign interests and their support for different factions in Sudan, leading to a complex geopolitical landscape.
- Implications for India’s Foreign Policy:
- Evaluate India’s economic and strategic interests in Sudan and the broader WANA region.
- Discuss the risks posed by prolonged instability, including threats to trade, investment, and security.
- Measures India Can Adopt:
- Suggest diplomatic initiatives India can undertake, such as engaging with key stakeholders in the region and supporting international mediation efforts. Propose economic strategies, including diversifying investments and strengthening trade ties with other stable countries in the region.
- Recommend security measures to protect Indian nationals and interests in the region, including contingency planning and intelligence cooperation.
- Conclusion:
- Summarize the main points and reiterate the importance of a proactive and strategic approach for India in addressing the implications of the Sudan conflict.