Forecasting better in India, come rain or shine

Forecasting better in India, come rain or shine

Syllabus
GS Paper 3 – Disaster and disaster management.

Context
With improvements, the ‘Mausam Mission’ will transform how weather information can help India become climate smart

Source
The Hindu| Editorial dated 19th   October 2024


India has experienced some of the worst monsoon seasons in recent times, with frequent flooding and other extreme weather events. As climate patterns become increasingly unpredictable, the need for improved weather forecasting and mitigation strategies has become urgent. The Union government’s initiative, ‘ Mission Mausam ,’ approved in 2024, aims to address this by enhancing the weather observation network and forecasting capabilities. This mission is a crucial step toward building resilience against climate risks.

  • Exposure to Flood Risks: Nearly two-thirds of India’s population is exposed to flood risks, but only one-third is covered by early warning systems, highlighting a gap in preparedness.
  • Cyclone vs. Flood Warnings: While cyclone warning systems cover all vulnerable areas, flood-prone regions lack similar coverage, necessitating better forecasting capabilities.
  • Importance of Investment in Innovation: Technological innovation in weather forecasting is crucial for addressing extreme weather events and mitigating risks effectively.
  • A comprehensive initiative aimed at significantly enhancing India’s capabilities in weather and climate science,research, and services.
  • Focus Areas –
    • Precise Weather and Climate Data – Including monsoon forecasts, air quality alerts, extreme event warnings, and management of fog, hail, and rain.
    • Capacity Building and Awareness – Enhancing skills and knowledge related to weather and climate.
  • Key Components –
    • Next-Generation Radars and Satellite Systems – Equipped with advanced sensors.
    • High-Performance Supercomputers – To improve Earth system models.
    • GIS-Based Automated Decision Support System – For real-time data dissemination.
  • Implementing Agencies – 3 institutes under Ministry of Earth Science
    • India Meteorological Department (IMD)
    • Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
    • National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)
  • Expanding Weather Observation: The mission focuses on increasing India’s weather observation network using advanced tools like Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs), wind profilers, and radiometers.
  • Improving Forecasting Models: The integration of machine-learning approaches and a better understanding of atmospheric physics aims to enhance the accuracy of weather predictions.
  • Addressing Weather Modification: Investigating and implementing weather modification techniques will be part of the mission to mitigate extreme weather risks.
  • West Coast Vulnerability: Only five radars monitor the entire western coast, despite the increasing frequency and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea.
  • Lack of Coverage in Key Cities: Cities like Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, and Jodhpur, which face repeated flooding, do not yet have weather radars, leaving them vulnerable.
  • Limited Data Access: While IMD shares data through its portal, there are restrictions on volume and availability, particularly for researchers and innovators, limiting the scope for innovation.
  • Global Examples: Countries like the U.S., U.K., and France have made weather data publicly accessible, fostering innovation in local weather forecasting tools.
Case Study:

United States – Public Access to Weather Data and Innovation Public Weather Data Availability: The U.S. government, through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), provides open access to weather data collected from over 160 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs), satellite systems, and other weather monitoring tools.  

Impact on Innovation: This public data availability has resulted in the development of a wide range of tools by private companies and researchers. For instance, platforms like AccuWeather and The Weather Channel use this data to create highly localized weather predictions, alerts, and early warning systems.  
  • Public Domain Data: ‘Mission Mausam’ should prioritize making weather data from new instruments (radars, profilers) openly available to support trend analysis and create local early warning systems.
  • Collaboration with Researchers: Data from weather forecasting models should be made available for academic validation and improvement, fostering local decision-making.
  • District-Wise Warnings: The IMD provides weather warnings through web and mobile apps, offering forecasts ranging from an hour to four days, but user experience can be improved.
  • Interpreting Weather Warnings: The mission should focus on improving tools that help users interpret warnings with user-friendly guides and educational media.
  • Capacity Building: Enhanced capacity to understand and act on weather warnings through videos, guides, and media will ensure that users can make informed decisions.

‘Mission Mausam’ is a timely initiative that aims to make India weather-ready through improved observation and forecasting. With a focus on expanding radar coverage, improving data access, and enhancing user communication, this mission can significantly strengthen India’s resilience to extreme weather events. At a time when climate change poses growing risks, a comprehensive and technology-driven approach is critical to safeguarding lives and livelihoods across the country.


Why is the South-West Monsoon called ‘Purvaiya’ (easterly) in Bhojpur Region? How has this directional seasonal wind system influenced the cultured ethos of the region? [ UPSC Civil Services Exam – Mains 2023]


Discuss the importance of improving weather forecasting systems in India in the context of increasing climate risks. What challenges exist, and how can the ‘Mission Mausam’ initiative address them? [250 words]

  • Introduction:
    • Briefly define the key concept or topic (e.g., Mission Mausam, extreme weather forecasting).
    • Mention its relevance or importance in the current context, such as rising extreme weather events or climate change impact.
  • Body:
    • Discuss the main objectives or features of the initiative/policy.Highlight its potential impact on addressing specific challenges (e.g., improving weather forecasting, reducing flood risks).
    • Provide examples or data to support the importance of the initiative.
    • Identify key challenges or gaps in the implementation (e.g., insufficient radar coverage, limited data access).
    • Discuss any logistical, financial, or technological constraints that may hinder the initiative’s success.
    • Suggest practical measures or reforms to improve effectiveness (e.g., expanding radar coverage, enhancing public data accessibility).
  • Conclusion:
    • Summarize the potential benefits if challenges are addressed.

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